Elecurator’s Forecast of the Electoral College Split

Elecurator developed a method to forecast the split of the Electoral College votes between the two Presidential candidates using social media data. The method relies on the sentiments towards the candidates on the three dominant issues: Economy, Pandemic and Race Relations. The sentiments in each of the 50 US states towards each candidate on each date are used to allocate the Electoral College votes to the candidates.  The two averages of these allocations over the tracking period are the forecasted Electoral College votes for each candidate.

The chart of the forecast based on the tracking from June 1, 2020, to October 29, 2020, allocates 295 to Joe Biden and 240 to Donald Trump:

Elecurator will be posting an updated forecast based on tracking from June 1, 2020, through November 2, 2020.