Biden/Trump Strengths and Weaknesses as Election Day Approaches
Our trackers of tweets on different topics are beginning to show some surprising trends in both candidates’ strengths and weaknesses! Here are some.
1. Economy: Tweets about Trump and the Economy always dominated tweets about Biden and the Economy. For example, as recently as October 6th, 2020, there were more than 51 thousand tweets about Trump vs. only 1,832 about Biden. That pattern flipped BIG TIME beginning October 18th, 2020. Trump had 8,045 tweets that day vs. 16,736 for Biden – more than double those on Trump! Could this be the beginning of a serious look at Biden’s handling of the economy if he were to become the President? The sentiment towards the candidates on the topic though is another story. Trump seems to be getting more positive sentiments. Biden though seems to be seen positively on the Economy on some days and not on others. So, overall, could the Economy be a drag on Biden’s chances?
2. Pandemic: Since early September 2020, more people have consistently tweeted about the pandemic and Biden than about the pandemic and Trump (the only exception was on October 2nd when the news that Trump tested positive hit the news). The tweets about Biden and the pandemic have also been generally more positive than about Trump. There are some periods though when this is not so and the week starting from October 18th appears to be one of those. Given how close to the elections we are, this should be a cautionary sign for the Biden campaign
3. Race Relations: This is an issue that almost always gets more tweets and more positive ones about Biden than Trump. It’s definitely a strong point for Biden!
4. Other major issues: We are continuously tracking five other major issues – Environment, Gun Violence, Health Care, Racial Justice and Voting Rights. Healthcare is getting the most tweets of these issues. In fact, the month of October 2020 has seen more tweets than any other period since early August 2020 about healthcare. People are also reading and sharing these tweets in large numbers – there were 122 million and 121 million views respectively on October 13th and October 23rd of healthcare related tweets! Tweets about the Environment also have jumped significantly in October 2020. People’s sentiment on both issues also seems to have become more negative during the same period. Gun Violence and Voting Rights though have lost steam in October 2020 as significant issues of discussion on Twitter. Racial Justice also seems to have lost momentum after spiking in September 2020 and early October 2020. So, if Healthcare and the Environment are big issues for people on Twitter, the negative sentiment shows that they are more concerned about both issues, and Biden seems to be saying that he will work on improving the country on both issues, they could give him an edge in this last stretch of the campaign!
Overall, our tracking shows that race relations, healthcare and environment could give Biden an edge in the elections but Trump could have strengths on the topic of the economy. The pandemic has mostly been a strong point for Biden, but the last two weeks in October are showing some signs that it could be becoming weaker for him.