Election Day Forecast of the Electoral College Split

Our updated forecast based on the tracking from June 1, 2020, to November 2, 2020, does not show much movement from our first forecast. It allocates 296 to Joe Biden and 240 to Donald Trump. But this forecast also includes a 95% confidence band. According to our approach, there is a 95% chance that Joe Biden’s final Electoral College votes will be between 272 and 320 and that Donald Trump’s will be between 215 and 263.

Elecurator may post additional updated forecasts later in the evening today, November 3, 2020, and over the coming days.