November 4 - Forecast of the Electoral College Split

Our updated forecast based on the tracking from June 1, 2020, to November 3, 2020, shows a very small movement from our first two forecasts.  It continues to allocate 296 to Joe Biden and makes a very small change to 239 from 240 for Donald Trump.  This forecast also includes a 95% confidence band but it’s narrower for both candidates.  The forecast now gives a 95% chance that Joe Biden’s final Electoral College votes will be between 282 and 311 and that Donald Trump’s will be between 226 and 253.